Iran’s trade balance became positive for the second month and the volume of imports decreased as well.
Based on the report of the Public Relations office of Iran Customs , the IT Department of Iran Customs reported that during the 2 months of current Iranian year ( started on March 21, 2015) the imports of our country reached 6 billion and 344 million dollars which decreased by 13.82 percent compared to the same period of the past year. Also during the same period, the non-oil exports of our country stood at 7 billion and 861 million dollars which dropped by 2.66 percent. The report indicated that during the 2 months of current year, the volume of exports exceeded the volume of imports.
The main export items included: propane, bitumen and polyethylene and the main importers were China, Iraq, UAE, India and Afghanistan respectively.
The main imports of our country consisted of livestock corn, with share of 3.44 percent, rice with 2.42 percent, soybean meal with 2.24 percent, machineries for shaping mineral products with 2.12 percent and wheat with share of 1.77 percent and UAE, China, South Korea, Turkey and India allocated the highest share of Iran’s imports respectively to themselves.
Im ersten Quartal 2015 ging der deutsch-iranische Außenhandel gegenüber dem Vergleichszeitraum des Vorjahres um 9% zurück und erreichte einen Wert von 575 Mio. Euro. Deutschland lieferte Waren im Wert von 464 Mio. Euro nach Iran und bezog im Gegenzug Waren im Wert von 111 Mio. Euro. Gegenüber dem Vergleichszeitraum 2014 fielen die deutschen Lieferungen um 14% und die deutschen Importe iranischer Waren verzeichneten einen Anstieg von 23%.
Wichtigste Warengruppen bei den deutschen Lieferungen nach Iran im ersten Quartal 2015 waren Maschinen, Apparate und mechanische Geräte (142 Mio. Euro), Getreide im Wert von 53 Mio. Euro (keine Einfuhren im Februar) sowie optische, photografische usw. Erzeugnisse (40 Mio. Euro), Pharmazeutika (34 Mio Euro), elektrotechnische Erzeugnisse (30 Mio. Euro), sowie Kraftfahrzeuge, Landfahrzeuge im Wert von 21 Mio. Euro.
Die iranischen Lieferungen nach Deutschland waren hauptsächlich Früchte und Nüsse im Wert von 49 Mio.Euro, andere Waren tierischen Ursprungs (Häute und Schafsdärme)(12 Mio. €), pharmazeutische Erzeugnisse (11 Mio. Euro) und Teppiche (11 Mio. €). Eine Tabelle von 98 Warengruppen lkann angefordert werden. Nach Angaben des Statistischen Bundesamtes
The government will no longer allocate subsidized gasoline to passenger vehicles at a price of 70,000 rials, and regular gasoline will be offered at a single price of 10,000 rials (around 30 cents) for car owners nationwide without quota, while unleaded gasoline will cost 12,000 rials per liter, deputy oil minister said in a statement, IRNA reported Monday. Abbas Kazemi said the remainder of subsidized gasoline in smart fuel cards, estimated at 2.5 billion liters, can be used by September 22. The government previously offered 60 liters of subsidized gasoline monthly to private cars and motorbikes with 1,800cc-capacity engines or below via smart fuel cards at 7,000 rials per liter. But the delay in recharging fuel cards for the May 22-June 21 period (the Iranian month of Khordad) had triggered speculations which ultimately came true that the government was planning to remove subsidies and sell gasoline at a single price. Head of engineering affairs at the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company (NIORDC) said the unification of gasoline prices can help improve economic growth and fight fuel smuggling. Saeed Naghedi said domestically-produced gasoline is 25 percent cheaper than the Persian Gulf free-on-board (FOB) prices of imported gasoline, but the new rate "partially makes up for the discrepancy between subsidized and real gasoline prices." According to the NIORDC, other major petroleum products, including diesel, mazut, and kerosene will be sold at 3,000 rials, 3,000 rials and 1,500 rials per liter respectively, liquefied natural gas will be offered at 2,300 rials per kilogram, and every liter of jet fuel for passenger aircraft will cost 6,000 rials, based on the new pricing scheme. Naghedi said unifying gasoline prices is part of measures to curb consumption. He added that motorists will continue to buy gasoline via smart fuel cards due to their advantages, such as keeping track of fuel consumption which can help in setting national policies. In 2007, the government started issuing electronic fuel cards across the country. In December 2010, as part of the first phase of the national subsidy reform plan, the government offered car owners monthly gasoline quotas. The subsidized price of rationed gasoline had increased since then, but still remained well below international prices. Vehicle owners had been allowed to purchase extra fuel at higher prices. But even those prices were lower than international prices. Under a five-year plan started in December 2010, and promoted as an “economic revolution” by former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran began slashing three-decades-old subsidies on sensitive energy and food items, replacing them with controversial cash payments.
What are the impacts of sanctions on Iranian economy? Could the government manage and monitor the negative impact of these sanctions?
Imposed sanctions have increased the cost of trade and caused foreign exchange rate volatility, but the government has managed to bring back stability to the foreign exchange market, brought down inflation from over 40 percent to 15.5 percent in less than two years, and stopped negative economic growth. This year's budget was formulated very realistically based on the fall in oil prices and with the assumption that sanctions will continue. The government's economic team has been planning for a post-sanctions environment and is mapping out strategies to channel funds and accelerate development of key sectors, including oil and gas, tourism, and IT. We are doing a lot of feasibility studies on investment environment in Iran. Of course, Iran's investment attractions are quite clear and we hope new investment is channeled into sectors that help Iran's economy. If sanctions are lifted this summer, it will not have a strong impact on the economy before the end of this Iranian year. There will be an impact in terms of expectations but we will begin to feel the result by the end of this year. We expect real economic growth to be between 2.5 and 3 percent in 1394. The government’s policy to bring down the inflation to single-digit rate will be strongly pursued. Our understanding is that economic and banking sanctions will be lifted as soon as the nuclear agreement is implemented. This may take a few months after the agreement is signed.
What is the ratio of non-performing loans? To what extent are the activities of Iranian banks congruent with the international standards?
Iran’s non-performing loans ratio is about 14.5 percent. Of course, an important reason for the high level of bad debt is that it is not written off from the books of banks and credit institutions, as it is customary in the West. Iran’s banking sector needs to be overhauled with fundamental reforms, capital injections, and management restructuring. Banks need to observe Basel II and III accords and improve corporate governance which is very important. The Central Bank has started working on defining standards and has adopted more strict measures to deal with banks to restore financial discipline.
What is the situation of non-licensed credit institutions in Iran?
The competition between non-licensed credit institutions and banks is not based on economic realities. These institutions have taken big risks and are endangering people’s deposits. They give interest rates that run up at 28 percent when the inflation rate is 15.5 percent. The Central Bank has prohibited banks from offering interest rates above 20 percent on one-year deposits. Non-licensed credit institutions account for about 15 percent of the country’s banking activities which should be stopped. Those non-licensed credit institutions, which seek permission to act under the supervision of the Central Bank, handle around 10 percent of banking activities.
How would you describe foreign investment in Iran? Are foreign banks allowed to make investments in your country?
Iran needs not only domestic investment and capital accumulation but also foreign investment which is highly needed. We welcome foreign investors especially if they bring the world’s latest technology and know-how to our country. Some European and Arab investors interested in the banking sector have already approached me and are asking whether they can get licenses to establish new banks, buy stakes in existing private banks, and whether they can open up branches. For all requests, we will review the background of the institutions in their home country and our relations with those countries will also be looked into. Based on our banking regulations, foreign banks are allowed to take a 40 percent stake in a local bank. However, the Central Bank is reviewing regulations to provide banks with easier terms in free trade zones. Under current circumstances, we do not see the need to change the 40 percent rule for new licenses in the mainland.
How would you analyze previous banking policies in Iran?
The policies of the former government were formulated in a manner that led to budget deficit and undermined the independence of the Central Bank. However, the return of senior experts to the Central Bank and the new government has brought back calm and stability to the economy. As a result, inflation has been curbed, the economy has come out of recession, and the foreign exchange market has been experiencing a considerable stability. At the start of the new administration, the Central Bank was facing with a difficult situation because of the inappropriate financing of the massive Mehr Housing Project. As a consequence, 45 percent of the nation’s monetary base was unwisely used for the financing of this project.